A rising velocity line doesn’t always mean the team is actually faster. When managers push for speed, builders will often unconsciously de-value points to make the numbers look better. Points become a currency, and inflation follows. That upward slope can be pressure, not progress. Velocity is a measurement, not an objective. Don’t force the thing you’re measuring.
We estimate work during the planning meeting so the stakeholders can choose stories and plan for the next iteration. And that estimate is a forecast, not a promise.
The team hasn’t failed if actual velocity has lowered.
Keep estimates honest, protect builders from pressure, and use velocity as feedback, not as the target.
Discussions for your team
- How can we notice reduce external pressures on builders?
- Are our estimates used for planning or for performance?
- Have we seen point inflation? How did it start?